This is it -- this may be one of the last financial quarterly reports from Sirius Radio before the company acquires larger rival XM Radio soon (or doesn't.) Sirius is most likely set to have a great quarter in terms of customer additions, as its Q4 period covers the all-important holiday season from last year -- traditionally a huge quarter for just about any industry that sells any product.So, that's it -- here we go. Please remember to hit the "Refresh" button on your browser regularly, as updates to this liveblog will occur every few minutes or so. All times below are in Eastern Standard Time (EST.)
8:00am -- I'm sitting on the webcast waiting for a starter's pistol to metaphorically go off. Let's see if Sirius can get started within two minutes of its scheduled start time.
8:02am -- I can hear a bunch of people clearing their throats -- nice editing there, Sirius. We are starting.
8:06am -- call is given to CEO Mel Karmazin, who says 2.7 million new customers were gained in FY2006. 67% of net satellite radio additions in Q4 were given to Sirius (over rival XM). This is be best year and quarter in Sirius' history, according to Mel.
8:08am -- Mel is harping on how Sirius has reversed the trend of losing customer adds to XM, as it is now growing faster than its larger rival. Maybe that is why Sirius wanted to acquire XM, eh?
8:10am -- FY2007 is set to see Sirius have a full-year revenue figure of $1 billion -- the fastest growth to a billion in revenue in the "history of radio." Siruis' ARPU (average revenue per user) is now $11.01.
8:12am -- Sirius achieved a 55% share of OEM net subscriber growth. This means that for all new vehicles sold, 55% of those radios were Sirius radios while 45% were XM radios. This is quite a reversal from just 18 months ago. Sirius has really stepped up its game in the OEM vehicle market.
8:13am -- $513 million was the revenue figure for FY2006, as Sirius marches to $1 billion in revenue this fiscal year. Mel's observations continue -- low levels of customer churn plus record customer additions and retention are placing Sirius atop the "new media world."
8:15am -- Mel sounds displeased that SIRI stock has not reflected the growth and performance that Sirius has achieved (he makes a note that he himself owns significant SIRI stock.) Mel says that he will do everything possible to ensure SIRI reflects the outstanding product Sirius offers. Mel hands the presentation off to other members of the management team
8:17am -- 11.9% was the total customer churn percentage for the year -- is this high or low? over 10% of customers leaving for the year sounds kinda high, even with the record Sirius customers for FY2006.
8:19am -- Wal-Mart is mentioned as a strong asset that gave Sirius the "most respected supplier" award in the consumer electronics segment. This is pretty significant here -- consider all the vendors inside the Wal-Mart consumer electronics department.
8:20am -- 4th-generation chips to make Sirius radios smaller with more efficient battery life are in testing at chip vendor STMicroelectronics, and new radios should be out this year in nicer form factors.
8:22am -- OEM marketshare is again touted as being "all-Sirius", as XM Radio was handily beaten in the OEM vehicle market in FY2006, as the end of the year ended with 1.9 million customers with OEM vehicle Sirius radios.
8:24am -- Howard Stern is being lauded as a reason why Sirius subscribers has gone through the roof. Additionally, the addition of 24-hour coverage on NASCAR coverage is being given as a huge reason why subscriber additions have gone crazy. As NASCAR is the #1 spectator sport in the country, Sirius' programming choices are being promoted as the reason for customer additions have far outpaced rival XM Radio.
8:26am -- Sirius' NASCAR coverage -- which began in January -- is being exploded into a five-minute discussion here, with tons of metrics on advertising and specifics being given. Holy cow -- was not aware NASCAR was such a huge deal for Sirius.
8:30am -- Sirius is now talking about its latest quarter being its first with a positive net cash flow figure, with the last five quarters pushing Sirius into the leadership position in the satellite radio industry ahead of rival XM Radio.
8:33am -- free cash flow of $30 million for Q4, as compared to free cash flow of $60 million for all of FY2005. That's quite a change for Sirius, as the company must have really kept costs under control while really increasing the value for customers. I wonder if SIRI stock will start trending upward?
8:34am -- CEO Mel Karmazin takes the call back over with some closing remarks before the Q&A session begins. He's rolling up the details on some of the specifics already mentioned in the call. Mel glosses over the announcement from the acquisition announcement of XM Radio, and says information is available on the Sirius website. Mel will be in Washington tomorrow to testify on how the "merger" will offer the best for consumers and for both companies.
8:36am -- the analyst Q&A starts...
8:38am -- the first question concerns retail strategy and how the merger will confuse customers in terms of buying a radio that may become "obsolete." Good question here, as some customers will think this. The answer comes in to say there will not be any "obsolete" radios if the merger happens -- both XM and Sirius radios will work fine. Great -- but both companies need to market this fact HEAVILY or consumers will be confused, period.
8:40am -- the second question concerns free cash flow figures for 2010 (projections) as well as free cash flow for 2007. The answer is that previous free cash flow guidance for a few years out (to 2020) has not changed -- except for issues related to the merger with XM. Basically, Sirius execs say that previous guidance holds for now, until merger talk and issues are ironed out.
8:44am -- the third question comes in and concerns the retail outlook for 2007 (XM said retail may be soft in 2007). Also, a possible merger between GM and DaimlerChrysler may affect Sirius OEM contracts. Mel says that a possible GM and DaimlerChrysler merger has no effect until it is final (at least on Sirius' business).
8:47am -- the fourth question revolves around how Sirius can estimate the costs for the proposed XM merger, and Mel answers by saying there is no way to know until prelim talks with the DOJ and other regulatory bodies have been completed and Sirius can start estimating costs on the costs on the merger in all the different categories.
8:53am -- one of the last questions asks about the OEM car manufacturers embedding systems in new cars to allow customers to use portable audio players (iPods) per customer demand -- and how that is going to further compete with Sirius in the vehicle. Good question here, and Mel answers that competition from terrestrial radio, HD radio, portable music players and iPods has always been there. Sirius' differentiator is content -- and that content is superior to all the competitors. To a point, I agree with this -- but nobody has better content that with an individual and his iPod content. That won't change most likely.
8:56am -- the last question details the probability of the Sirius/XM merger taking place in terms of prior media mergers having issues, although the Sirius/XM merger is not anti-competitive. I've never heard a CEO say "ya know" more than Mel Karmazin, though. Heh.
8:59am -- that's it folks -- Sirius has had a blowout year and quarter and things look pretty darn bright for the future, and especially if the merger with XM Radio is approved and completed.
8:13am -- $513 million was the revenue figure for FY2006, as Sirius marches to $1 billion in revenue this fiscal year. Mel's observations continue -- low levels of customer churn plus record customer additions and retention are placing Sirius atop the "new media world."
8:15am -- Mel sounds displeased that SIRI stock has not reflected the growth and performance that Sirius has achieved (he makes a note that he himself owns significant SIRI stock.) Mel says that he will do everything possible to ensure SIRI reflects the outstanding product Sirius offers. Mel hands the presentation off to other members of the management team
8:17am -- 11.9% was the total customer churn percentage for the year -- is this high or low? over 10% of customers leaving for the year sounds kinda high, even with the record Sirius customers for FY2006.
8:19am -- Wal-Mart is mentioned as a strong asset that gave Sirius the "most respected supplier" award in the consumer electronics segment. This is pretty significant here -- consider all the vendors inside the Wal-Mart consumer electronics department.
8:20am -- 4th-generation chips to make Sirius radios smaller with more efficient battery life are in testing at chip vendor STMicroelectronics, and new radios should be out this year in nicer form factors.
8:22am -- OEM marketshare is again touted as being "all-Sirius", as XM Radio was handily beaten in the OEM vehicle market in FY2006, as the end of the year ended with 1.9 million customers with OEM vehicle Sirius radios.
8:24am -- Howard Stern is being lauded as a reason why Sirius subscribers has gone through the roof. Additionally, the addition of 24-hour coverage on NASCAR coverage is being given as a huge reason why subscriber additions have gone crazy. As NASCAR is the #1 spectator sport in the country, Sirius' programming choices are being promoted as the reason for customer additions have far outpaced rival XM Radio.
8:26am -- Sirius' NASCAR coverage -- which began in January -- is being exploded into a five-minute discussion here, with tons of metrics on advertising and specifics being given. Holy cow -- was not aware NASCAR was such a huge deal for Sirius.
8:30am -- Sirius is now talking about its latest quarter being its first with a positive net cash flow figure, with the last five quarters pushing Sirius into the leadership position in the satellite radio industry ahead of rival XM Radio.
8:33am -- free cash flow of $30 million for Q4, as compared to free cash flow of $60 million for all of FY2005. That's quite a change for Sirius, as the company must have really kept costs under control while really increasing the value for customers. I wonder if SIRI stock will start trending upward?
8:34am -- CEO Mel Karmazin takes the call back over with some closing remarks before the Q&A session begins. He's rolling up the details on some of the specifics already mentioned in the call. Mel glosses over the announcement from the acquisition announcement of XM Radio, and says information is available on the Sirius website. Mel will be in Washington tomorrow to testify on how the "merger" will offer the best for consumers and for both companies.
8:36am -- the analyst Q&A starts...
8:38am -- the first question concerns retail strategy and how the merger will confuse customers in terms of buying a radio that may become "obsolete." Good question here, as some customers will think this. The answer comes in to say there will not be any "obsolete" radios if the merger happens -- both XM and Sirius radios will work fine. Great -- but both companies need to market this fact HEAVILY or consumers will be confused, period.
8:40am -- the second question concerns free cash flow figures for 2010 (projections) as well as free cash flow for 2007. The answer is that previous free cash flow guidance for a few years out (to 2020) has not changed -- except for issues related to the merger with XM. Basically, Sirius execs say that previous guidance holds for now, until merger talk and issues are ironed out.
8:44am -- the third question comes in and concerns the retail outlook for 2007 (XM said retail may be soft in 2007). Also, a possible merger between GM and DaimlerChrysler may affect Sirius OEM contracts. Mel says that a possible GM and DaimlerChrysler merger has no effect until it is final (at least on Sirius' business).
8:47am -- the fourth question revolves around how Sirius can estimate the costs for the proposed XM merger, and Mel answers by saying there is no way to know until prelim talks with the DOJ and other regulatory bodies have been completed and Sirius can start estimating costs on the costs on the merger in all the different categories.
8:53am -- one of the last questions asks about the OEM car manufacturers embedding systems in new cars to allow customers to use portable audio players (iPods) per customer demand -- and how that is going to further compete with Sirius in the vehicle. Good question here, and Mel answers that competition from terrestrial radio, HD radio, portable music players and iPods has always been there. Sirius' differentiator is content -- and that content is superior to all the competitors. To a point, I agree with this -- but nobody has better content that with an individual and his iPod content. That won't change most likely.
8:56am -- the last question details the probability of the Sirius/XM merger taking place in terms of prior media mergers having issues, although the Sirius/XM merger is not anti-competitive. I've never heard a CEO say "ya know" more than Mel Karmazin, though. Heh.
8:59am -- that's it folks -- Sirius has had a blowout year and quarter and things look pretty darn bright for the future, and especially if the merger with XM Radio is approved and completed.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-27-2007 @ 2:13PM
inventorz said...
Nice Job a very entertaining blog with a good ending.
2-28-2007 @ 6:34PM
EMIL J KOVACH JR said...
Well, It Sounds Like, In Mel's Opinion, Howard And NASCAR, Made The Money, And The Other 133 Channels, Are Running Them Broke.
EMIL J KOVACH JR